Is Alberta still Canada?

What to expect in the future

Alberta has become one of the most discussed provinces in the country - not only because of oil, taxes, migration and Calgary’s rapid growth, but because of its increasingly forceful conversation with Ottawa. The question is no longer whether Alberta wants to be “heard.” The question is how far the province is prepared to go to protect its economic interests, natural resources, tax autonomy and right to shape its own future within Canada.

On December 8, 2022, the Alberta Legislature passed the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act - one of the most significant political decisions made by the province in recent years. Formally, of course, Alberta remains part of Canada. But the political meaning of the law was clear: the province signalled that it is no longer willing to quietly accept federal decisions it considers harmful to its economy, energy sector and constitutional authority.

It is important to be precise: this law does not make Alberta an independent country, and it does not mean the province can simply choose which federal laws to follow and which to ignore. Canada remains a federation with a constitutional division of powers between the federal and provincial governments. But the very adoption of such a law was a political signal: Alberta intends to defend its interests much more aggressively and challenge federal initiatives it believes go beyond Ottawa’s proper authority.

For many residents of the province, this was not an expression of separatism, but an attempt to restore balance. In Alberta, there has long been a feeling that the province gives too much to the country and too often faces federal policies that restrict its energy sector, investment projects and economic development. It is against this background that Danielle Smith’s government gained strong support among those who believe Alberta must act more firmly.

An economy gaining strength again

In recent years, Alberta has indeed become one of Canada’s most dynamic regions. The province is attracting people from Ontario, British Columbia and other parts of the country thanks to a combination of more affordable housing, a strong labour market, no provincial sales tax, a lower tax burden and strong business activity. Calgary has especially benefited from this wave: the city is growing quickly, welcoming new residents, companies and investment.

At the same time, the picture should not be oversimplified. Alberta is no longer only an oil province, although the energy sector still plays an enormous role. Technology, logistics, agribusiness, financial services, construction, aviation, clean tech and other sectors are also developing. But energy remains the foundation that gives the province a powerful budgetary resource and confidence in negotiations with the federal government.

The cost of living in Alberta looks significantly more attractive for many families than in the GTA or Vancouver. The province does not have HST in the Ontario sense: the federal 5% GST applies, but there is no separate provincial sales tax. Housing in Calgary and other cities remains much more accessible than in Toronto and Vancouver, although rapid population growth is already putting pressure on real estate, rents and infrastructure.

That is why Alberta has become more than simply an “alternative” for people tired of Ontario and British Columbia prices. For many, it is now a deliberate choice: move to a place where you can buy more housing for less money, pay less consumption tax, find work more quickly and feel that personal effort produces a stronger financial result.

The next major question: a provincial pension plan

The loudest new stage of the debate is Alberta’s possible withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan and the creation of its own Alberta Pension Plan. The provincial government launched public consultations and released a report suggesting that Alberta could claim a very large share of CPP assets if it left the program.

The report, prepared by LifeWorks for the Government of Alberta, estimated a transfer of about $334 billion by 2027 - roughly 53% of the base CPP assets. The logic behind this calculation is that Albertans have contributed more to the CPP over decades than they have received in benefits, because of the province’s younger population, higher incomes and stronger employment.

But this is exactly where the central dispute begins. That estimate is not an officially settled amount. CPPIB and several economists argue that such a share is far too high and that the actual withdrawal formula could give Alberta a much smaller portion of the assets. No province has ever left the CPP before, so the legal and actuarial practice for such a division has never truly been tested. That means the amount, terms and consequences of any withdrawal would become the subject of serious political, financial and likely legal conflict.

Under Canadian law, a province wishing to leave the CPP must notify the federal government in advance and create a comparable pension plan. But government desire alone is not enough. Such a move would require a political mandate, a detailed financial model, public trust and a clear answer to the main question: would pensions truly be the same or better, and would contributions be lower and stable?

Why this idea matters so much to Alberta

If Alberta could indeed receive a large share of CPP assets and create its own pension fund, it would become one of the most significant financial events in the province’s history. Potentially, such a fund could give Alberta more control over pension contributions, investment strategy and future benefits.

Supporters argue that a separate Alberta Pension Plan could reduce contributions for workers and employers, preserve or even improve future benefits, and give the province an additional financial instrument. For business, this would look especially attractive: lower payroll costs could strengthen Alberta’s competitiveness and attract even more companies.

Critics, however, warn of serious risks: a disputed asset transfer amount, possible administrative costs, investment risk, loss of CPP scale, politicization of pension money and uncertainty for people who work in one province but live or retire in another. In a pension system, trust matters more than slogans, so this issue requires a much colder analysis than ordinary political debate.

Still, the fact that Alberta is seriously discussing leaving the CPP shows the scale of change. The province no longer wants to be merely a source of tax and resource revenue for the rest of the country. It wants to control more of its own economic result.

What this means for the rest of Canada

If Alberta ever leaves the CPP, the consequences will be felt far beyond Alberta. The Canada Pension Plan is built on interprovincial scale, demographics and contributions from workers and employers across the country, excluding Quebec, which has its own Quebec Pension Plan. If one of the country’s economically strongest and relatively younger provinces exits the system, questions about contributions, sustainability and the distribution of the burden for the remaining participants will inevitably follow.

That is why the federal government has no interest in seeing Alberta leave. For Ottawa, this is not simply a regional pension reform, but a potential precedent that could alter the balance of the federation. If Alberta proves it can manage its resources, taxes, energy policy and pension system more effectively on its own, other provinces may begin asking uncomfortable questions as well.

There is, however, another side to this. The sharper the conflict between Alberta and Ottawa becomes, the more political uncertainty appears for business and investors. A strong economy likes autonomy, but it does not like chaos. That is why Alberta must not only demonstrate strength, but also predictability: clear rules, respect for contracts, transparent tax policy and a realistic approach to major institutional decisions.

Why people are moving to Alberta

In recent years, Alberta has become one of the main destinations for internal migration in Canada. Many families are moving from Ontario and British Columbia not out of romance, but out of simple financial logic. In the GTA or Metro Vancouver, even a good income increasingly does not guarantee the ability to buy comfortable housing. In Calgary, the same family can often buy more space, live more comfortably and feel financial relief sooner.

Alberta’s labour market remains strong, especially in Calgary and Edmonton. Population growth supports demand for housing, rentals, services, schools, healthcare, transportation and commercial real estate. This creates opportunities for investors, but also requires caution: rapid market growth attracts not only smart investment, but overly optimistic expectations as well.

Calgary has indeed looked stronger than many major Canadian markets during the period of high interest rates. While Toronto and Vancouver faced pressure from expensive borrowing, a higher price base and reduced affordability, Calgary was supported by migration, relatively lower entry prices and a strong economy. That is why real estate continued to rise there even as other markets cooled noticeably.

But investors should not replace analysis with euphoria. When population is growing quickly, prices are rising quickly and rates remain high, it is especially important to calculate cash flow, vacancy risk, condo fees, property tax, insurance, management costs and future liquidity. Alberta is strong, but that does not mean every property automatically becomes a good investment.

Why the train has not left

Our company has been working with Calgary real estate investments for more than two years. We identified the potential of this market early and helped many investors enter before interest in Alberta became mainstream. Today, I often hear potential clients say: “We should have bought back then; now the train has probably left.” In my view, that is the wrong conclusion.

Yes, the most obvious early-entry opportunities have become more expensive. Yes, the Calgary market is no longer an undervalued secret. But the fundamental reasons for Alberta’s growth have not disappeared: internal migration, housing affordability compared with the GTA and Vancouver, a strong labour market, a lower tax burden, business activity and the province’s political drive for greater economic autonomy.

The most interesting phase in Alberta may still be ahead, but the people who succeed will not be those who simply buy on emotion. They will be the ones who choose the right location, property type, developer, layout, rental demand and timing. The market is becoming more mature, which means it now requires a more professional approach.

If you need a consultation on real estate investment in Calgary and Alberta, you can schedule a meeting at our Richmond Hill office or online. The booking link is available on our portal, and you can also contact us by phone. We will help you evaluate the market, compare options and choose a strategy that fits your goals, budget and risk level.