5 simple tips for mortgages recipients in 2026
Mortgage alphabet
According to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook from RE/MAX Canada, home sales are expected to increase by 3.4% next year. The report notes that this comes amid signs of renewed buyer interest in the fall compared with the first half of the year. In 32 of the 38 markets analyzed by RE/MAX between January 1 and October 31, 2025, home sales declined year over year. At the same time, the number of listings increased — in Ontario alone, the growth reached as much as 21 percent — contributing to a decline in average prices in 2025.
RE/MAX is forecasting a further 3.7% decline in home prices in 2026.
In the Greater Toronto Area and its surrounding suburbs, price adjustments, an increase in listings, and lower interest rates are creating more favourable conditions for buyers, although affordability challenges remain, especially for first-time buyers.
According to the report, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 3.5% year over year from 2024 to 2025 — from $1,127,525 to $1,088,166. In the City of Toronto itself, the average price dropped by 4.2% to $1,074,978; in Mississauga, the average price declined by six percent to $1,003,561. In Brampton, the average fell by 6.8% to $942,458.
For 2026, RE/MAX forecasts a further 3.5% decline in Toronto, bringing the average price to $1,037,354. In Brampton, RE/MAX expects prices to rise by four percent to an average of $980,156. In Mississauga, prices may increase by three percent in 2026, reaching $1,033,668, according to RE/MAX.
A Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX shows that one in ten Canadians plans to buy a home within the next 12 months, and half of them are first-time buyers.
According to the Leger survey, nearly a quarter of Canadians — 23% — said they would be ready to enter the market if interest rates declined by another 0.5 to 1 percentage point. “Amid continued economic uncertainty, Canadians remain interested in home ownership,” says Don Kottick, President of RE/MAX Canada. “The resilience that began to emerge in the fall is expected to continue into 2026, with first-time buyers in particular finding new and creative ways to save and enter the market.”
For today’s homebuyers, the situation is exceptionally favourable. Prices have come down and have not yet begun to rise actively again. There is choice on the market, there is room to negotiate, and, in addition, today we are offering very attractive mortgage rates that have not been available for the past four years.
So what should we expect from the mortgage market, and where are interest rates heading?
Canada’s economy posted unexpectedly strong growth in the third quarter, but economists who examined the details raised a number of concerns, suggesting that the real picture is weaker than the headline numbers imply.
Statistics Canada reported on November 28 that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.6% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2025, marking a rebound after a 1.8% contraction in the second quarter.
The third-quarter results show that Canada managed to avoid a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. The scale of the growth also significantly exceeded the expectations of both the Bank of Canada and the economists surveyed before the release of the data, who had forecast annualized growth of only 0.5%.
Bradley Saunders, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a client note that the import-driven third-quarter growth masks underlying weakness in domestic demand.
The decline in household consumer spending was the largest quarterly drop in nearly two decades, excluding the pandemic period, Saunders said.
StatCan also reported modest GDP growth of 0.2% in September, driven by growth in manufacturing and a recovery in air travel following the Air Canada strike in August. The agency’s preliminary estimate also points to a 0.3% contraction in the economy in October. The decline in household consumer spending and business investment, together with the weak preliminary GDP estimate for October, shows that the economy is struggling to gain momentum, Saunders said.
The third-quarter GDP data was released ahead of the Bank of Canada’s final scheduled interest-rate decision of the year, set for December 10. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25% in October but signalled that it could pause further cuts if the economic data does not deviate from its forecast. The Bank of Canada had projected modest annualized growth of 0.75% in the second half of 2025 and a gradual recovery in the years ahead.
BMO Chief Economist Doug Porter said after the GDP data was released that the rebound in the third-quarter figure should calm recession talk for the time being, but he believes the central bank will not change its position based on the mixed details of the report. There are many mixed signals here for the Bank of Canada, he said, but the overall picture is better than expected, which places the Bank more firmly in wait-and-see mode at its next meeting.
As of November 28, financial markets were pricing in only a 16% probability of a rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting in December.
And finally, here are 5 simple tips for those planning to get a mortgage in 2026 — whether you are buying a property, renewing your mortgage, or refinancing in order to lower your interest rate or access additional funds from the equity accumulated in your home.
Your bank is not your friend, and loyalty can cost you thousands of dollars. Compare rates at different banks or with a professional mortgage broker. Banks most often offer their best rates to new clients in order to sell them additional products. Your own bank, relying on convenience and the fact that you are busy, will most likely try to sell you a more expensive mortgage, especially at renewal.
Facebook and ChatGPT make terrible mortgage brokers — at least for now. Of course, we also use online resources in everyday life, and they can be very convenient for general information. But asking on Facebook about the best mortgage rate is like asking how much a red car costs in Canada. If you base your decisions on your friends’ situations and on unverified recommendations from advisers promoting the “best broker in the world,” you will most likely only confuse yourself and waste time looking for products that do not apply to your scenario. Take the advice of artificial — and not-so-artificial — intelligence as general background, and speak with an experienced mortgage broker who can review your situation and recommend several of the strongest options available to you.
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There is always a way out, even if today it is very difficult to keep up with your mortgage or manage other debts. Like most of our clients, we are also feeling the effects of the negative economic environment, tariff wars, and poor government policy, all of which have created the strongest pressure on Canadian middle-class homeowners in decades. Every day, for more than 20 years, we have been helping people — or simply giving free advice — on how to reduce the burden of mortgage payments, consolidate debts, or obtain an alternative mortgage if the bank has refused you because you are self-employed, have imperfect credit, or have simply become overextended with debt.
Fixed mortgage or variable-rate mortgage? Oh, this has been our favourite question for many years. Today, the best fixed rates have fallen below 4 percent, and if you do not want to worry too much, prefer a predictable monthly budget, and do not plan to change homes within the next 3 to 5 years, a fixed rate may be the right choice. In all other cases, it may be worth considering a variable-rate mortgage, which in some cases is currently slightly lower than a fixed rate — and for now, as we wrote above, the Bank of Canada does not appear ready to change its key rate. Changes to your mortgage rate usually happen almost immediately after the central bank changes its benchmark rate.